Oscar Picks

To be honest with you, my Oscar picks last year….sucked. I got Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay right, but absolutely tanked the other categories. As an honest-to-god awards show junkie, it was a truly embarassing event. This year, there’s cold, hard, cash on the line as I’ve entered an Oscars pool — so I have to step up my game, y’all.
I’ve seen almost every film, though I may once again be making my best actor pick blind (I’m picking Jeff Bridges, and then seeing “Crazy Heart” later today; if I see it and hate it, me and The Dude are going to have some words). On to the picks!
Best Picture
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Avatar
The Hurt Locker was hands down the best film of the year, and I have seen 9 of the 10 nominees, it’s definitely the best of the bunch. The problem is that “spectacle” movies like Avatar make tons of money, get tons of attention, and pretty much ride that wave to a Best Picture win despite being, when you think about it, nothing but popcorn movies. (See: Gladiator, Titanic, Lord of the Rings). I occasionally support Popcorn wins; I thought Braveheart earned its win, and even Titanic. But this year? No. Just no. Avatar was boring as hell, 30 minutes too long, and in the words of Simon Cowell, painfully self indulgent. Plus, Cameron is the official King of the World Jerks.
Still, sadly, it will likely win.
Best Director
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
There’s no way she doesn’t win. Aside from doing an amazing job with the film, they’re going to give her this award to make up for her movie getting the shaft in the Best Picture race. Sometimes the Academy tries to be “fair” that way; like how they gave Russell Crowe an absolutely laughable Best Actor win for Gladiator to make up for him getting completely robbed of his deserved win for The Insider (have you ever seen that movie? It’s amazing; go get it on DVD, for real). Anyhow, she’s going to win, take it to the bank.
Best Actress
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Will Win: Meryl Streep
I picked Meryl to upset the frontrunner (Kate Winslet) last year, and I was totally wrong. So this year, I’m hoping for her to upset again, this time overtaking Sandra Bullock. I loved The Blind Side. But awarding Sandra for playing a brassy Southern Belle would be like giving Vince Vaughn an Oscar for his 18th performance as a “wisecracking man child with a heart of gold.” I’d like to hope that Gabourey Sidibe could pull off the upset too, because she just seems so damn likable and how often is a 300 pound black woman going to have a shot at a Best Actress Oscar? But her performance wasn’t as special as some would have you believe, and the Academy is already going to hit their Plus Sized Black Woman Oscar Winner quotient by giving Supporting Actress to Mo’Nique.
Speaking of….
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Mo’Nique
Will Win: Mo’Nique
This win is the only slam dunk pick of the bunch. There’s basically no way she’s not getting it, and she was great in the movie. And I love that she talks honestly about how she doesn’t shave her legs and has an open marriage. She’s great. I loved Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, so I’d almost like to see her upset if an upset is going to happen, but it probably won’t.
Best Actor
Should Win: Colin Firth
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
As I said, I’m seeing Crazy Heart later today; but I’m basing my Colin Firth pick on the films I’ve seen thus far. He was so great in A Single Man, even if Tom Ford’s overly stylized and obvious direction made me want to puke, and Julianne Moore tried way, way too hard throughout her shrieky performance. However, from everything I’m reading, it looks like The Dude is going to make this happen. But that’s just like, my opinion, man.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
I forgot when pronouncing Mo’Nique the only slam dunk win that I was wrong–this is another slam dunk. And good for him, Hans Landa might be my favorite Tarantino villain since Mr. Blonde. Evil, suave, insanely intelligent, and rocking not only a badass full-length leather trench, but a giant Sherlock Holmes pipe. Love him.
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Tarantino won for Pulp Fiction’s screenplay in 1995, and I think the script for Inglourious Basterds blows it out of the water. Unfortunately, The Hurt Locker is going to get the nod here — as another make-up award for screwing it out of Best Picture.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Up in the Air
Will Win: Up in the Air
I’d like to call a possible upset for An Education, but it faces the same problem that Carey Mulligan does in that not enough people saw it. Too bad, but I think Up in the Air will take this one home, and it was indeed a great script and a good movie, so I’m satisfied with it.
Best Animated Feature
Should Win: Up
Will Win: Up
Ok, this movie made me weep real tears in the FIRST TEN MINUTES. It was so, so, good. Also: Talking Dog.
(Squirell!)
Also give this a big thumbs up for being the first animated film since my fave, Beauty in the Beast, to get the Best Picture nod.
That’s it! No live blog for the Oscars this year, as I’m attending a party to watch it with other actual humans. But you can entertain yourself with last year’s live blog, which has my favorite title I’ve ever given a post.
Here’s hoping I leave the party 20 whole dollars richer. Wahoo!






















